Middletown health official predicts COVID cases will soon rise

“That’s very promising,” he said.

As of Saturday, the total number of COVID cases in Middletown were at 11,259, an increase of 48 from the previous week. The total number of deaths remained at 184, which has been unchanged for at least the past month, Elak said.

“We’re seeing a little decline in cases reported. It’s steady; not going up quickly, but it’s not going down quickly, either. It’s been stable,” he said.

As of July 21, there were 4,299 additional cases in Connecticut, and the positivity rate was 10.6 percent.

Since the state only provides COVID data once a week, no longer compiling the case rate per 100,000 people, Elak said, the positivity rate “looks different now.” Also, the colorful maps of the state designating which towns have low, medium and high transmission rates are no longer used.

Health experts have estimated that the true rate may be between 4 and 10 times higher than what is recorded by the state, according to Elak, who looks primarily at the data to determine trends. “I’m not looking at the numbers so much, but seeing where they’re going,” he explained.

The dominant strains in the United States now are the BA.5 and BA.4, the former of which was contracted by the president. In particular, BA.5 “is really evading your immune defense,” Elak said.

Compared to the rest of the country, he said, “New England is in one of the better situations, but that’s not to mean we’re out of the woods by any means.”

In fact, considering what’s happened in the southern hemisphere, particularly New Zealand, a highly vaccinated country that employs “very strict regulations as far as masking” and other measures, could be telling, Elak said.

Lately, there has been a “huge” surge in cases in that country, Elak said, although they may not necessarily occur here.

The data shows infection among those 12 to 17 is fairly low.

“I’m wondering if that age range is doing home testing,” Elak explained. “Maybe parents would rather test their kids on their own instead of bringing them to a testing site.”

Vaccines still protect against moderate and severe illness and hospitalizations and deaths, “but it’s providing little to no protection from getting COVID,” the director said.

There was talk recently of opening up the second booster shot to those under 50, Elak said, but that idea was put on hold so pharmaceutical companies could focus on manufacturing boosters for the new variant.

“It’s a little bit unfortunate. Although, if it’s really going to come out in September, it would make sense to wait and get the new booster. Hopefully, that’ll provide a little better protection,” he added.

Elak reminds people that the pandemic is still ongoing and it may take time before the endemic phase begins. When that happens, the virus will become more predictable, just as influenza is, the health director said.

“Winter comes, and we pretty much know how many cases we’re going to get. We know how many deaths there are going to be, generally, and then it goes away,” he said about the flu.

That’s not the case with COVID, Elak added. “I don’t see that happening anytime soon,” he said.

As time goes on, experts know less about the virus, Elak said. “This thing is adapting, which makes it so unpredictable. There’s no rhyme or reason to this thing,” he explained, evidenced by resurgences at different times of the year.

The city has upcoming COVID vaccination clinics, including one Wednesday at Cross Street AME Zion Church, 440 West St., from 1 to 5 p.m. and Friday, at the Northern Middlesex YMCA, 99 Union St., from noon to 4 p.m. Both serve those 6 months and older.

Also, households are eligible for a third round of free at-home COVID test kits, which can be ordered online.